MLB

Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox Odds, Picks and Predictions

A pair of teams falling short of preseason expectations meet as the Detroit Tigers visit the Boston Red Sox at 7:10 p.m. ET on Monday to open a three-game series. 

The Tigers (26-40) have a blossoming young core mixed with veterans, having signed Javier Baez, and had a strong surge after May last season. 

Yet they are fourth in the AL Central with the league’s worst offense and a pitching staff that has struggled to stay healthy. Still, they are streaky and can pick off teams at a moment’s notice.

The Red Sox (36-31) are fourth in the AL East but are leading the race for the final wild-card spot since the league is expanding its playoff format to include three wild-card teams.

Looking at the roster, one may think it’s the pitching staff that was slow to come around, but it is actually the opposite. Now Boston is top-10 offensively and defensively, hence why they’re a playoff team.

Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox Game Info

Location: Fenway Park, Boston, Mass.

Date: Monday, June 20, 2022

Time: 7:10 p.m. ET

TV: Bally Sports Detroit, NESN

Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox Odds

Odds are listed in moneyline, run line and over/under order:

  • BetOnline – Tigers +160, Red Sox -174; Tigers +1.5 (-120), Red Sox -1.5 (+100); 9.5
  • Bovada – Tigers +148, Red Sox -180; Tigers +1.5 (-120), Red Sox -1.5 (+100); 9.5
  • MyBookie – Tigers +160, Red Sox -190; Tigers +1.5 (-120), Red Sox -1.5 (+100); 9.5
  • BetUS – Tigers +155, Red Sox -175; Tigers +1.5 (-120), Red Sox -1.5 (+100); 9.5
  • BetNow – Tigers +166, Red Sox -176; Tigers +1.5 (-120), Red Sox -1.5 (+100); 9.5

The moneyline odds vary by book, but the best bet for the Tigers is at BetNow to yield a $166 profit on a $100 bet. For the Red Sox moneyline it is at BetOnline -174, needing a $174 bet to profit $100.

The run lines and over/under numbers are the same, though the odds on over/unders may vary slightly depending on the book.

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Betting Trends

The Red Sox have dominated the series of late, winning four of the last five games in Boston and beating the Tigers in 10 of the last 14 regardless of location. The over has hit in the last five games at Fenway Park. 

Though the under is 5-1 in the last six meetings. Consensus shows 80% of bettors think the Red Sox will win outright, and 63% of bets have been on the over.

Streaky Detroit Tigers

Detroit is 5-10 over its last 15 games, which includes a six-game losing streak which was snapped by winning consecutive games to close out the weekend series with the Texas Rangers

Alex Faedo gets the ball on Monday. He is 1-3 with a 4.28 ERA and has flashed potential at times.

Though he allowed seven earned runs against the Chicago White Sox his last start, his first in which he gave up more than two earned runs. The Tigers are 5-4 in Faedo’s starts, and the over is 3-6 in those games.

He’s part of a pitching staff that ranks 18th, allowing 4.38 runs per game. Tigers’ pitching allows a .240 average (16th) and .696 OPS (14th). Though they’ve struggle to generate whiffs, averaging 8.02 strikeouts per game (22nd).

The real issue has been offensively. Detroit ranks as the worst offensive team, scoring 2.95 runs per game. Their .224 average is 27th, and an OPS of .604 is the second-worst mark.

Jonathan Schoop and Jeimer Candelario are tied for the team lead with five home runs. Baez has the most doubles with 11. At 39 years old, Miguel Cabrera is leading the team with a .297 average. Putting it lightly, the offense has been horrible.

Prized prospect Riley Greene was called up over the weekend and had a pair of hits in his debut. He’s walked four times in two games and may provide a spark to the offense.

If nothing else, the Tigers need to trust he maintains a steady pace as a rookie and hope that fellow rookie Spencer Torkelson can figure out his struggles.

Slugging Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox are scoring 4.82 runs per game across 17 games in June and have increased their offensive output to 4.76 runs per game for the season.

Perhaps surprising to some, the offense was what struggled early on. But Boston has figured it out. The team batting average of .258 is third in baseball, and the .733 OPS is seventh. They also make solid contact, averaging 7.99 strikeouts per game, ranking eighth.

The middle and top of the lineup is mashing. Rafael Devers is on a MVP caliber pace, if not for New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge. Devers is hitting .330 with team highs of 53 runs, 23 doubles, and 16 home runs to go with 42 RBIs.

Trevor Story has 14 doubles and ten homers despite hitting .221. Xander Bogaerts is hitting .337 — a team-best — with 20 doubles, 41 runs scored, six home runs, and 31 RBIs. Then J.D. Martinez is hitting .336 with 23 doubles and eight home runs.

Then there are the likes of Alex Verdugo, Jackie Bradley Jr., Christian Vazquez, and Rob Refsnyder, who are improving or have added a jolt in a short stint.

The pitching staff has been strong, ranking seventh in allowing 4.05 runs per game. They’re holding opponents to a .228 average, which ranks sixth, and .672 OPS, ranking seventh. Their 8.65 strikeouts per game is 13th.

Josh Winckowski will make his third start, posting a 1-1 record. He did not give up a run in five innings against Oakland his last time out. His first start, he allowed four earned across three innings against Baltimore.

Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox Picks and Predictions

  • The Red Sox are heavy moneyline favorites and for a good reason. They’ve been tearing the cover off the baseball and face the worst offense in baseball. If there is any caution, it is what Winckowski brings, and Faedo’s consistency in his first eight starts and that Boston is playing its seventh straight game. That means the bullpen may not entirely be available.
  • The over/under is tricky because it requires both teams to score, typically. However, Faedo’s last start allowed the White Sox to score 13, which is an easy over ticket cashing. We suspect runs will be scored off each starter but will it be enough before the bullpens take over? We think not.
  • The best bet for our money is to take the Red Sox -1.5 (+100) to make the most of our investment. Betting on the red hot offense gives us confidence.

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