MLB

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals Odds and Picks

  • The Phillies recently had a nine-game winning streak and have won 11 of their last 13
  • The Nationals are losers of four straight and seven of their last nine
  •  Philadelphia has won the last eight meetings between the two teams

Introduction

The Philadelphia Phillies begin an important series on their ascension in the playoff race. Nearing the season’s midpoint, the streaking Phillies are still 8.5 games back in the NL East. But at 7:05 p.m. ET on Thursday, they open up a four-game series visiting the Washington Nationals (23-42), the NL’s worst team.

Philadelphia (32-31) isn’t the only team that has caught fire in the NL East though, as the defending champion Atlanta Braves are on a 14-game winning streak, including a sweep of the Nationals to start the week.

Cy Young candidate Zack Wheeler gets the start for the Phillies. He is 5-3 with a 2.84 ERA, and 75 strikeouts in 63.1 innings pitched. After allowing 11 earned runs in his first two starts this season, he’s allowed eight in the eight since. It will be his first appearance against Washington this season.

He will oppose southpaw Patrick Corbin, who is having an even worse season than he did a year ago. He is 3-8 with a 6.65 ERA, and he has just two starts where he’s given up fewer than three earned runs. Though he has won two straight starts and three of his last four.

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals Odds

TeamsMoneylineTotalRun Line (If the case)
Philadelphia Phillies198O 9.5 (-105)1.5 (-127)
Washington Nationals182U 9.5 (-115)1.5 (+107)

Odds courtesy of Bet Online. There are two ways to tell the Phillies are heavy favorites. The first being -198, meaning in order to win $100, you’ll have to bet $198, and a Phillies win pays out a total of $298. The other is that they are favored to win by two or more runs. The run line (-1.5) is handicapping how good they are, and the odds (-127) means you’ll have to spend more than the amount of money you want to profit (i.e., $127 to win $100 and payout $227).

Only bet money you can afford to give up because nothing is guaranteed. Though the Nationals are lucrative if they win. A $100 bet on their moneyline would pay out a $182 profit, or $282 total. A $100 bet on them to lose by one run or win outright would pay out a $107 profit and $207 total.

The under is slightly favored and means a $115 bet would pay out a $100 profit, or $215 total, if the two teams combine to score nine runs or less. A $105 bet would pay out a $100 profit, or $205 total, if the teams combine to score 10 or more runs.

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals Betting Preview

Philadelphia Phillies Preview

What makes Philadelphia so dangerous is their offense. They rank fifth in runs per game, scoring 4.88 per contest. Their .252 team batting average is seventh, and .746 OPS is fifth. They also hit the third-most home runs per game, averaging 1.3.

Bryce Harper is following up his MVP season with another one. He’s hitting .317 with 20 doubles, 44 runs scored, and 46 RBIs, all team bests, and has 15 home runs. Only Kyle Schwarber has more with 16. Rhys Hoskins has supplied power as well with 12 doubles, 13 home runs, and 36 RBIs, which is second while hitting .253.

If anything, the Phillies need to upgrade their pitching staff. They are 20th in allowing 4.41 runs per game, and teams hit .241 against them (18th) with a .691 OPS (13th). The one-two starting punch of Wheeler and Aaron Nola has been strong, but the rest of the rotation has struggled. The backend of the bullpen with Seranthony Dominguez’s emergence has been solid.

Though they are 13-14 on the road, the Phillies are in a good spot. The over is 35-25-3 in Phillies games this season.

Washington Nationals Preview

For all of Corbin’s struggles on the mound this year, he isn’t alone. Washington has the worst pitching staff in baseball, ranking last in runs allowed per game (5.86), opposing batting average (.277), and opposing OPS (.796). They are also 29th in home runs allowed per game (1.41) and 24th in strikeouts per contest (7.88). 

They are slightly better offensively though they have a power outage. Their average ranks fifth at .255, but their OPS of .698 is only 19th. They are scoring 4.25 runs per game, ranking 21st, which is down compared to their average. The 0.82 home runs per game is the fourth worst. But they do put the ball in play with the third-fewest strikeouts per game at 7.53.

Josh Bell seems like a trade candidate with a team-best .290 average with 32 runs scored, 10 doubles, seven home runs, and a team-high 38 RBIs. Juan Soto is only hitting .228 but has walked 52 times. He has an OPS of .833 and has 12 doubles, 13 home runs, 36 runs scored, and 28 RBIs.

The Nationals haven’t been good, period, and are 11-22 at home. The over 34-28-3 in Washington games this season.

Injury Report

Soto is questionable Thursday with a knee injury. Infielder Alcides Escobar has been out with a leg injury as well. In total, 10 Nationals pitchers are currently missing time, including Sean Doolittle, Stephen Strasburg, Victor Arano, and more.

Philadelphia is expecting Zach Eflin to return from his knee injury and start Sunday. He’s listed as probable. Otherwise, third baseman Johan Camargo is out indefinitely and shortstop Jean Segura till August. Four other pitchers are missing time.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals Picks and Predictions

The Phillies are such heavy favorites and have been playing so well it seems silly not to take them. Even with not profitable odds, sometimes taking the victory is best, and that’s what 85% of bettors are doing taking the Phillies moneyline. Another 71% are somewhat surprisingly on the over.

Look for Wheeler to have another Cy Young case making performance against a lowly lineup, and be sure to watch the Soto injury news because that may tweak the odds even more heavily in Philly’s favor.

The Pick: Phillies -1.5 (-127)

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