Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers Odds and Picks

  • The Twins have won the last seven meetings in Texas and 8-3 in the last 11 regardless of location
  • The under is 4-1 in the last five meetings, regardless of location
  • The Twins are 38-40-7 on over/unders and 22-20 on the road this season, while the Rangers are 35-41-4 on over/unders this season and 17-20 at home

The Minnesota Twins hope to maintain their lead in the American League Central heading into the All-Star break. The Twins (47-38) are the surprise team in the AL, and the Texas Rangers (37-43) have been underwhelming. They meet at 8:05 p.m. ET on Friday to open a three-game series at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas.

The Rangers added two big bats in middle infielders Corey Seager and Marcus Semien in free agency, but it took them a while to get going. Particularly Semien, who is heating up and forms a formidable heart of the order with Adolis Garcia.

Friday’s game is a battle of the Grays. Sonny Gray gets the ball for Minnesota. He is 4-1 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.04 WHIP (Walks, Hits per Innings Pitched).

The Twins are 8-3 in his starts and 5-6 on over/unders. He’s allowed three earned runs in two of his last three starts, which are the only times he’s allowed more than two.

Jon Gray will pitch for Texas. He is 4-4 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. The Rangers are 7-7 in his starts, and the over/under is 8-6. He’s allowed seven earned runs in his last five starts, in which he’s pitched into or beyond the sixth inning in all of those.

He was top 10 among starters in June with 44 strikeouts; a Wins Above Replacement of 1.1, and Fielding Independent Pitching of 2.60.

Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers Odds

TeamsMoneylineTotalRun Line
Minnesota Twins-110O 8-1.5 (+155)
Texas Rangers+100U 8+1.5 (-110)

The Twins are slight road favorites, and it’s largely because of how dominant Sonny Gray has been. A bet on the Minnesota moneyline would need to be $110 to profit $100 for a total payout of $210.

Jon Gray has been much better in June, and bettors can double their money with the Texas moneyline at +100.

A bet on the over means the two teams will need to score nine combined runs to cash out. The under will need to be a total of seven runs or less to cash.

The run line has increased the odds for the Twins to win by two or more. A $100 bet and Twins win by two or more runs would net bettors a $155 profit and a total payout of $255.

Conversely, a $110 bet on the Rangers to lose by one or win outright (+1.5 on run line) would profit $100 or a total payout of $210.

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Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers Betting Preview

Minnesota Twins Preview

The Twins have been one of the best teams in baseball because of a top-10 pitching staff and top offense. They are seventh, allowing 3.98 runs per game. However, they are stranding runners because opponents have a .236 batting average and .697 OPS against them, ranking 12th and 14th defensively.

Gray has been the ace while starters Joe Ryan, Chris Archer, and Devin Smeltzer join him with 3.09 ERAs or better. Jhoan Duran is an emerging reliever who has a 1.95 ERA, 48 strikeouts in 37 innings, and has converted all five save opportunities.

Minnesota’s offense is the opposite in that they could improve upon their 4.61 runs per game (11th) with a .253 batting average and .743 OPS, which both rank sixth.

Luis Arraez is in pursuit of the batting title with a .354 batting average in 277 at bats; both lead the team along with 48 runs scored. Like their counterparts this weekend, the Twins benefitted from offseason moves while adding Carlos Correa, Gary Sanchez, and Gio Urshela.

Correa is hitting .286 with a .816 OPS in 61 games after missing some time in May. Urshela has 13 doubles, eight home runs, and 35 RBIs, while Sanchez has 18 doubles and nine home runs.

Byron Buxton has 22 home runs and 46 runs scored. Jorge Polanco has 12 home runs and a team-high 44 RBIs while scoring 34 of his own runs.

Texas Rangers Preview

The Rangers have been middle of the road, but a slow start masks how well they’ve played. Their offense has been better, though, scoring 4.46 runs per game (14th). They have a .238 batting average and .493 OPS, ranking 20th and 17th in the league.

Texas hasn’t always had guys on base but has seven guys with at least ten home runs.

Seager leads with 16, followed by Garcia (15), Nathaniel Lowe and Jonah Heim (12 each), and Semien, Kole Calhoun, and Mitch Garver with ten apiece. Garcia also leads the team with 47 runs scored, 16 doubles, and 51 RBIs.

The pitching staff ranks 16th in the following: allowing 4.33 runs per game, a .240 opposing batting average, and .699 OPS against.

Jon Gray is heating up, but Martin Perez has been the ace in a tremendous year. The bullpen has been exceptional, with Brock Burke and former starter Matt Moore resurrecting his career. Both of them have sub-2 ERAs. Dennis Santana has a 2.25 ERA.

Injury Report

Correa’s status Friday is one to watch. The star shortstop is listed as probable with a leg injury.

Promising prospect Alex Kirilloff is questionable with an undisclosed listing. Every other injury designation, be it for the Rangers or Twins, is out for an extended period of time.

Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers Picks and Predictions

For the Rangers, it’s all going to be about how well they can square up Sonny Gray, which most offenses have struggled with this year.

He’s allowed five all year and has the advantage against a Texas offense that is 19th, striking out 8.74 times per game. But a bloop and a blast is definitely in play with how Jon Gray has been pitching for the Rangers.

Public bettors are favoring the Twins’ moneyline, with 68% of bets placed on them and 59% on the over.

Though those could easily swing the other way, particularly going under, but seven runs would not be a lot. Still, the Twins, with a lead, have a good enough bullpen to lock things down.

Betting Pick: Twins -110

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