Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs Betting Pick
The Los Angeles Chargers are +6.5 underdogs when they visit AFC West for the Kansas City Chiefs in NFL week 3. KC obviously has one of the top offenses in the NFL, but their defense was exploited on Sunday night which makes the near TD spread seem a bit too high.
Then again, the LAC offense has struggled out of the gate so far through two weeks.
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Chargers Defense Doing Their Job
LAC was a -3 point favorite last week against the visiting Cowboys, and Dallas came in and ran all over the Chargers for a 20-17 win. Zeke Elliott had 71 yards and a TD, but it was Tony Pollard who did a majority of the damage for Dallas with 109 yards on 13 carries. The running game opening up allowed Dak Prescott to hit 23 of 27 passes.
The Chargers’ defense still did a good job of holding Dallas to 20 points in Week 2 despite giving up all that yardage. The unit was solid in Week 1, too, holding Washington to 133 yards passing in the 20-16 LAC win. Los Angeles is #4 in pass defense through two weeks and #7 in points allowed, but obviously, Kansas City is a different animal offensively.
L.A. hasn’t really gotten out of the gate offensively this season in terms of points scored, as their 18.5 ppg is in the bottom 5 in the league through two weeks. You’d immediately point the finger at 2nd year QB Justin Herbert for those deficiencies, but he went for 337 against Washington and 338 last week vs. the Cowboys. It’s the running game that needs to get going, and they should be able to against Kansas City.
Chiefs Seem Vulnerable
It’s only been two weeks, but the Chiefs could easily be 0-2 or 2-0 instead of the 1-1 record they bring into the matchup with Los Angeles. KC was down 22-10 at the half vs. Cleveland and 29-20 in the 4th quarter before coming back for a 33-29 win. Sunday night’s game against Baltimore saw Kansas City leading 35-24 going into the 4th quarter before the Ravens escaped with a 36-35 win.
Sunday’s matchup with the Chargers seems like Patrick Mahomes as well as Justin Herbert are both going to get theirs through the air. Mahomes hit for 337 and 3 TD vs. the Browns and 343 and three more scores last week against Baltimore. This matchup looks like it’s going to come down to which team can run the ball better.
On paper, it would look like Los Angeles can get their rush offense going against a Chiefs defense that allowed 251 yards on the ground vs. the Ravens last weekend. Cleveland also rushed for 151 in the season opener, but those are also two of the better run offenses in the NFL. The Chargers are running for just 92.5 ypg on the ground through two games, and leading rusher Austin Ekeler has only amassed 111 yards on the season.
Betting Odds & Betting Lines
According to BetUs, Kansas City Chiefs are coming into the match priced around -300 to win the match, while Los Angeles Chargers are priced at +250 betting odds to produce an upset. Bovada and BetOnline have identical moneyline odds. BetUs have the spread set at 7.00 points, while Bovada and BetOnline have the spread set at 6.50 points. As for those interested in totals betting, the over/under line is set at 54.50 points across all three sportsbooks.
Chargers at Chiefs Pick
For as good as the Chiefs have been the past few years, one thing they always do is play AFC West opponents tight. The Raiders probably should have swept the Chiefs last season, and the Broncos only lost by six at Arrowhead in NFL week 13, even though Denver was in the midst of a 5-11 campaign.
The Chargers lost in OT in NFL week 2 (Herbert’s 1st game) before stomping KC 38-21 in the regular-season finale (with the Chiefs resting their starters but still). Take the points.
Our NFL pick: Chargers +6.5