TCU Horned Frogs Win Total: o/u 7.5 wins
Gary Patterson enters his 21st season as the TCU head coach, marking the second-longest tenure in College Football. In 11 of those seasons, Patterson’s teams have won double-digit games and have been a part of three different conferences. The Big 12 looks like it is headed for disassembly, and the Horned Frogs would like to add one more conference title before that happens.
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The Schedule
Texas (10/2)
The Horned Frogs have done their part in helping prevent the Longhorns from being “back.” Since their admittance into the Big 12, TCU has taken 7 of 9 matchups between the schools, including two straight. Steve Sarkisian takes over in Austin, and his high-flying offense will be put to the test against Patterson’s typically stingy defenses.
At Oklahoma (10/16)
The Sooners come in as the Big 12 favorite (-180 Bovada) and ranked number 2 in the preseason AP poll. Lincoln Riley’s Sooner teams have been amongst the top scoring in the country during his time in Norman. Three of his quarterbacks have finished in the top of the Heisman voting, including two winners. Spencer Rattler takes over as the favorite to hoist the trophy at the end of this season (+500 BetOnline).
At Iowa State (11/26)
Another road test against a Big 12 favorite (+275 Bovada), the Horned Frogs end the season in Ames against an Iowa State team that will likely be vying for a playoff spot. The Cyclones open the season with their highest ranking in school history, checking in at seventh in the preseason AP poll. Iowa State snuck by TCU by a field goal in Fort Worth a season ago, so the Horned Frogs will look to play spoiler this season.
The Team
Quarterback Max Duggan is back to lead the Horned Frogs offense after a decent showing in 2020. Duggan provides a dual-threat to go along with former five-star recruit, running back Zach Evans. On the defensive side of the ball, TCU has replaced NFL defensive backs in back-to-back seasons with the likes of Trevon Moehrig, Ardarius Washington, and Jeff Gladney a season before. Gary Patterson’s reputation for tough-nosed defenses is warranted, and despite the losses, it’s fair to assume the Horned Frogs will slow down opposing offenses.
The Bet
Under 7.5 wins
The road schedule for the Horned Frogs is brutal. Matchups at Oklahoma, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, and others make for a gauntlet of tough games. Out-of-conference matchups against California and crosstown rival SMU won’t prove to be cupcake wins either. If TCU can take care of their home schedule unscathed and steal one or two on the road, this bet has the chance to hit the over, but that’s a tall task.
Other Bets
TCU Big 12 Champions
If Gary Patterson can dial up the defense and cause disruptions for the high-scoring Big 12 conference, the Horned Frogs may have a chance to be Big 12 champions. BetUS has the Horned Frogs betting odds at +1400, 5th best in the conference, while Bovada has them at +1500.
TCU to Make College Football Playoffs
Winning the Big 12 isn’t necessarily an automatic bid to the College Football Playoff at this time, but if the Horned Frogs could pull that off, it’s likely they’ve got an argument to be included in the postseason. Bovada has TCU’s betting line at +3000 to reach the playoffs for the first time.
