New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills NFL Betting Analysis, Odds & Picks

The New England Patriots (8-4) and the Buffalo Bills clash on Monday Night Football in an AFC East showdown with the division lead on the line. The game is scheduled to begin at 8:15 P.M. EST at Highmark Stadium in Buffalo, NY. 

The Patriots enter Monday riding a six-game winning streak. There was a point during the season when people around the league were genuinely questioning whether New England could make a legitimate playoff run. Those questions have more than been answered due to their outstanding play over the past month and a half. 

Things have been a bit rockier in Buffalo. The Bills have traded wins and losses over their past six contests en route to a 3-3 record during the time frame. They were able to dominate the Saints last week in an impressive 31-6 victory. 

This rivalry game should not fail to disappoint as these teams enter separated by only one half of a game in the standings. 

Betting Analysis for New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills NFL 

New England Patriots Betting Stats & Analysis

New England has been strong in almost every facet of the game as of late.

The Patriots rank seventh in points scored per game and first in points limited per game in the entire NFL. Defensively, New England has been especially stringent against the pass. The Patriots rank third in passing yards surrendered per game. 

New England also excels at causing havoc with their 30 sacks which ranks fifth overall and league-leading 19 interceptions. 

However, they have been susceptible to the run giving up over 115 yards on the ground per contest which ranks in the bottom half of the league.

Mac Jones has begun to come into his own on offense. The rookie quarterback has thrown for 2,850 yards and 16 touchdowns. Jones has especially impressed in recent games.

At the beginning of the 2021 campaign, it appeared that he was a bit timid and felt comfortable handing the ball off and making short passes. But now Jones seems to be settling in and has displayed the ability to make big plays in the passing game. 

New England will seek to make it seven in a row on Monday night. 

Buffalo Bills Betting Stats & Analysis

The Bills also have a tremendous defense. They rank right behind the Patriots in points surrendered per game and also rank in the top ten in limiting yards against the run and pass. 

The Bills offensive attack has produced big numbers as well. The team ranks second in the NFL in points per game with 29.6. They rank fifth in total yards per game and seventh in passing yards per contest. 

Josh Allen has continued to establish himself as one of the best quarterbacks in the league. The fourth-year QB has thrown for 3,071 yards and 25 touchdowns compared to 10 interceptions. Despite showing inconsistency at times this year, Allen is posed to lead Buffalo back to the postseason. 

One of Allen’s favorite targets is wide receiver, Stefon Diggs. The star wideout has totaled 847 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns. The Bills will need him to play a vital role in Monday’s game against this extremely talented New England secondary. 

Running back Devin Singletary could be featured quite a bit in the game given New England’s struggles against the run. Singletary has been solid with over 450 rushing yards on the season. 

Buffalo will be tasked with the daunting responsibility of slowing down this red hot Patriots team. They do have the advantage of being the home team which will obviously work to their benefit. 

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills NFL Betting Trends

New England is 6-0 ATS during their six-game winning streak. The Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their past four matchups against AFC opponents. 

Buffalo is 4-0-1 ATS when facing AFC East opponents over their last five games. The over has hit in four of Bill’s last five games following an ATS victory. 

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills NFL Betting Odds

According to Betonline, the Bills are 2.5-point favorites for Monday night. 

BetUS has Buffalo listed as 3-point favorites in this game. 

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How to bet on: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills NFL – Betting Lines

This bodes to be nothing short of an excellent game with the division lead on the line. So who comes out on top?

First off, let’s talk about the weather. It is expected to be in the low 30’s and rainy, which could have a major effect on both offenses. Considering that both the Patriots and Bills feature outstanding defenses, the weather may only magnify the talent of both defensive units. 

This is a chance for Josh Allen to silence any critics who still do not believe he is an elite quarterback. He would prove a lot If he can overcome this skilled Patriots defense and the conditions to lead the Bills to a win. But it will not be easy.

New England has been playing great and they will remain confident on the road. The team is geared up to limit the Bills passing attack. Buffalo may need to mix in the running game more than usual to catch the Patriots off guard. 

But in the end, I like Buffalo to win at home. Their balanced attack between scoring at a high level while consistently limiting opposing offenses should lead them to an extremely close victory over the Patriots. 

OBS Betting Picks for New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills NFL 

Take the Bills -2.5

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