Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs NFL Betting Analysis, Odds & Picks
The Denver Broncos (6-5) and Kansas City Chiefs (7-4) meet up on Sunday Night Football for an important ACF West showdown. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 P.M. EST at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri.
The Chiefs lead the AFC West division. However, the Chargers, Raiders, and Broncos all trail by just one game as they each have a 6-5 record entering Week 13.
Denver has a realistic opportunity to jump from last place to first place with a victory on Sunday.
The Broncos defeated the Chargers 28-13 last week, while the Chiefs defeated Dallas two weeks ago and had a bye last week.
Both Kansas City and Denver will lay everything on the line in this crucial game.
Betting Analysis for Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs NFL
Denver Broncos Betting Stats & Analysis
Denver has been about as inconsistent as they come this season. One week they are displaying an excellent attack against the talented Cowboys, and the next, they find themselves laboring against the underwhelming Eagles. Finding consistency has been difficult ever since their hot start to the 2021 campaign.
The Chiefs have dominated the Broncos in recent years. They have outscored them by almost 80 total points in their last four meetings. So do the inconsistent Denver Broncos have a shot at upsetting Kansas City?
If this was last year or the season before, my answer would be a strict “no.” But this has not been the same Chiefs team from recent memory. Kansas City has shown blatant holes on their team, which could leave them vulnerable.
Patrick Mahomes and the offense have looked off for the majority of the season despite a few exceptions. This plays into the Broncos’ favor because Denver’s defense has been extremely solid as of late. Their defensive unit has allowed more than 17 points only once since NFL Week 7.
They rank third in points against per game with just 17.8. The defense also ranks in the top half of the league in sacks, rushing and passing yards surrendered, and total yards given up per game.
The Broncos will give themselves a strong opportunity for an upset if they can shut down the Chiefs’ high-volume offensive attack.
Kansas City Chiefs Betting Stats & Analysis
The Chiefs still have a top-tier offense even in a down year. They rank ninth in points per game and second in total yards per game. But can they overcome a stout Denver defense?
Patrick Mahomes surely believes so. The quarterback has thrown for 3200 yards to go along with 25 touchdowns compared to 11 interceptions. Once again, many experts are labeling this as a forgettable season for the former MVP.
Patrick Mahomes has the tools to will his team to victory, and it really does not matter how talented the opposition may be. As long as Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are available, the Chiefs should be able to post some points on the board.
The real question is the defense. Kansas City ranks 23rd in the NFL with over 360 yards surrendered per contest. They are especially liable to giving passing yards, as they rank 24th in that department.
Kansas City only has sacked the quarterback 19 times this year. That ranks 27th in the NFL. A questionable secondary and a defensive line that struggles to pressure the QB is typically going to lead to opposing offenses having field days against you on a consistent basis.
The one bit of good news for the Chiefs is that the Broncos do not feature a tremendous passing game. As long as the defense does not completely break down on Sunday, Kansas City will be in a position to win the game.
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs NFL Betting Trends
The Broncos are 1-4 ATS this season against fellow AFC opponents. Denver is 0-10 SU in their last ten games against the Chiefs.
The Chiefs are 2-10 ATS at home in their last 12 games. Kansas City is 5-1 SU over their past six games.
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs NFL Betting Odds
Betonline has the Chiefs as 10-point favorites entering Sunday night.
BetUS also lists Kansas City as the favorites to win by 10 points.
The Denver defense could cut into that spread if they play up to their full potential.
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How to Bet on: Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs NFL – Betting Lines
The Chiefs are the obvious betting favorites. They had won four contests in a row before last week’s bye. However, Dallas gave them some trouble in their last game.
I absolutely believe the Broncos’ defense will cause havoc in this one. The Chiefs will struggle to get more than 25 points. However, I just don’t think the Broncos’ offense will do enough to earn the victory even against this atrocious Chief’s defense.
Denver could limit Kansas City to less than 20 points and still fall short of a victory.
But I don’t think the spread will hold up. Denver should play well enough to make this a close ballgame.
But in the end, the Chiefs will get the win at home. Kansas City has also not lost to the Broncos in six years, and the majority of their meetings have not been all that close. While I could see this one ending up closer than anticipated, I expect Kansas City to continue their domination over Denver.
OBS Betting Picks for Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs NFL
Take the Chiefs -6.5
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