AFC Championship Game Rematch Takes Center Stage in Week 5
Without question, the best game on the NFL schedule this week features the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs in a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship Game. With the Bills losing last year’s trip to Kansas City and the Chiefs off to a sluggish start this year, both teams will have something to prove on Sunday night. Plus, both teams are still among the best teams in the AFC this year, so the result of this game could end up mattering in the final standings.
According to BetUS and the listed betting odds, the Chiefs are three-point favorites at home with a straight-up moneyline of -145 compared to Buffalo’s moneyline of +125. BetOnline has the same spread but with slightly different moneylines of -147 and +127, respectively. Both sportsbooks have the over/under for the game set at 56.5 points.
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Aiming for the Top
The Bills entered the season with a lot of fanfare and expectations, only to fall flat in Week 1, losing at home to the Steelers. Of course, Buffalo has more than made up for it over the last three weeks. The Bills have won three straight games against Miami, Washington, and Houston, outscoring those teams 118-21.
Surprisingly, it’s not been business as usual for Andy Reid and the Chiefs in 2021. They had to come from behind to beat the Browns at home in NFL Week 1 before falling to the Ravens and Chargers in back-to-back weeks. On the other hand, the Chiefs looked like their normal selves in a 42-30 win over the Eagles last week, although a 2-2 record has them at the bottom of the AFC West right now.
For Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense, not a lot has changed in recent years. Through four weeks, the Chiefs are tied for second in points scored, with Mahomes averaging over 300 yards passing per game and the Chiefs averaging better than five yards per carry on the ground. On the other hand, Mahomes has already thrown four interceptions this season and looked a little off until last week’s game.
Kansas City’s other problem is that they’ve given up the second-most points in the NFL this season. In fairness, they’ve some excellent offensive teams, including Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. However, giving up a minimum of 29 points in every game is a huge red flag and the biggest reason why the Chiefs are just 2-2 this year.
Here, There, and Everywhere
If you give the Bills a pass for their Week 1 loss to the Steelers, they’ve looked like the most complete team in the NFL thus far. They’ve scored at least 35 points in three straight games, putting them into a tie with Kansas City for the second-most points in the NFL this year. The Buffalo running game has been far more productive than it was last year, while Josh Allen has started to find his groove over the last two weeks despite some early struggles.
Likewise, the Buffalo defense has been dominant thus far, keeping shutouts in two of the last three weeks. Of course, the Bills haven’t exactly faced quality offensive teams this season, which is part of the reason why they’ve allowed the fewest points in the NFL to date. But there’s no doubting the talent at all three levels that have helped the Bills amass 12 sacks and 11 takeaways in four games.
Flip the Script
There is definitely something a little off with the Chiefs this year, which makes it tough to trust them to beat a quality team. Even if Buffalo’s strength of schedule has been underwhelming, the Bills are playing at a high level right now. Bet on the Bills to surprise Kansas City as three-point road underdogs on Sunday night.