MLB

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers Odds, Picks and Predictions

A battle atop the National League West commences this weekend as the Los Angeles Dodgers entertain the San Diego Padres for a four-game series beginning at 10:10 p.m. ET on Thursday.

The Padres (46-31) have made good on their spending by competing a little less than halfway through the season with the Dodgers (46-28) for the divisional crown.

Many thought it would happen a year or two ago, but the Padres — even without budding star Fernando Tatis Jr. — have become one of the league’s best.

Joe Musgrove is a big reason why, and he’ll get the ball on Thursday. The San Diego native has a no-hitter to his name, and this season has taken two at least seven innings.

He is 8-1 with a 2.12 ERA and 0.95 WHIP (Walks, hits per innings pitched). In his last start out, he allowed six earned runs compared to 14 for the other 12 starts. Games are 7-6 on over/unders when he starts.

The Dodgers elected to go with Mitch White, who is 1-1 with a 4.25 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. His team is 2-3 in his starts, and the over/under is 3-2. White has been stretched into a starting role, going at least four innings in his last four starts.

Two of those were scoreless, against the Chicago White Sox and Arizona Diamondbacks. In the other two, he allowed three earned runs against the Atlanta Braves and Pittsburgh Pirates.

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers Match Info

Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, California

Date: Thursday, June 30, 2022

Time: 10:10 p.m. ET

TV: Fox Sports 1, Bally Sports San Diego, Sportsnet LA

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers Odds

Odds are listed in moneyline, run line and over/under order:

  • BetOnline – Padres +113, Dodgers -123; Padres +1.5 (-194), Dodgers -1.5 (+169); 8
  • Bovada – Padres +113, Dodgers -135; Padres +1.5 (-185), Dodgers -1.5 (+160); 8
  • MyBookie – Padres +105, Dodgers -125; Padres +1.5 (-200), Dodgers -1.5 (+170); 8
  • BetUS – Padres +123, Dodgers -133; Padres -1.5 (-190), Dodgers -1.5 (+160); 8
  • BetNow – Padres +118, Dodgers -128; Padres +1.5 (-175), Dodgers -1.5 (+155); 8

The best moneyline odds on the Padres are +123 at BetUS, while the best for the Dodgers is at BetOnline at -123. The best run line odds are at Bovada for San Diego +1.5 (-185).

The best Dodgers’ run line odds are at MyBookie -1.5 (+170). The over/under at all books is 8, though the odds vary based on the over or under.

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Betting Trends

  • The Dodgers are 53-23 over the last 76 meetings
  • They’ve also won 37 of the last 51 meetings in Hollywood
  • The over is 4-1 over the last five meetings in Los Angeles
  • In the past nine meetings (dating back to two series in September 2021), the Dodgers are 8-1, and the over is 5-4
  • Bettors favor the Padres on the moneyline, drawing 57% of bets
  • The under is a public betting favorite, drawing 54% of bets
  • The Padres are 34-41-2 on over/unders this season and 25-15 away from home
  • The Dodgers are 29-37-8 on over/unders and 20-12 at home

Supporting Musgrove

Typically Musgrove pitches well enough that it doesn’t take much run support to secure a victory. This matchup is always a different strength-on-strength beast with Padres pitching and Dodgers hitting. Still, San Diego is equipped with the 10th best offense scoring 4.64 runs per game. They also hit .242, ranking 15th, with a .698 OPS, ranking 19th.

Unfortunately for them, though, Tatis hasn’t played this season, and Manny Machado — who was hitting .328 with 17 doubles, 12 home runs, 46 RBIs, and 48 runs scored — is out indefinitely with an ankle injury.

There are still capable hitters, but they’ve lost their two big home run threats. Eric Hosmer is hitting .280. Jurickson Profar has 17 doubles, eight home runs, and 50 runs scored. Jake Cronenworth has 20 doubles, seven home runs, 43 RBIs, and 49 runs scored (second to Machado in RBIs and runs, leading in doubles).

Their scoring average has dropped to 4.1 runs per game across the nine since Machado’s injury, and the Padres are 5-4 in that span.

The strength, though, has been pitching, ranking top 5 in all categories. Allowing 3.77 runs per game, they rank fourth. Opponents have a .220 batting average against (fourth) and .637 OPS (third). The backend of the bullpen has been very good, having Taylor Rogers close out 22 of 26 save opportunities.

Dodgers finding winning ways

There were many jokes in the 2000s about the Yankees being the best team money can buy, but lately, it has shifted to the Dodgers, who have won the NL West crown eight straight years from 2013 to 2020 and look to reclaim the crown. To do so, they outspent everyone for first baseman Freddie Freeman.

It’s worked. They have the best offense in baseball, scoring 5.14 runs per game.

However, that’s while sporting a .252 batting average, ranking ninth. It’s because of the power numbers, in which they are second in OPS with .757. 

Mookie Betts is out for the foreseeable future with a ribs injury. He’s hitting .273 with 17 home runs, 40 RBIs, and 53 runs scored. They still have Trea Turner (.309, 18 doubles, 11 home runs, 56 RBIs, 41 runs scored, 15 stolen bases) and Freeman (.308, 24 doubles, nine home runs, 47 RBIs, 50 runs scored). Beyond that trio, though, the lineup has struggled. 

Catcher Will Smith is heating up, though. He has 12 home runs, with seven of those coming in June when he’s hitting .304 to raise his batting average to .261.

The pitching staff isn’t bad, either, despite numerous injuries to starters — such as Walker Buehler and Dustin May — and relievers, such as Blake Treinen and Daniel Hudson. Still, they are second in allowing 3.38 runs per game, holding teams to a .220 batting average against (third) and a .643 OPS (fourth).

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers Picks and Predictions

  • Oddsmakers seem to like the Dodgers’ offense better than Musgrove’s consistency. Of course, the veteran right hander is coming off his worst outing, and at some point, he’s likely to come out of the game. The money opportunities seem ripe on the Padres moneyline, though.
  • With Musgrove going, one would expect the under to hit, but it’s hard to say which White will show up for the Dodgers. Both teams, though weakened, can strike at a moment’s notice, and one big inning could sway the game.
  • The profitability on Padres +123 with Musgrove pitching is too good to pass up. That’s despite the fact Musgrove hasn’t beaten the Dodgers in six career starts, including three last year when he allowed five earned runs across 15 innings pitched.

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