Updated Betting Odds to Win 2021 NL MVP Award

The stage is set for the last four weeks of the 2021 MLB Season to be action-packed. In the National League, we have the NL East and West, which are shaping up to come down to the wire. The Padres have a one-game lead over the Reds for the 2nd NL Wild Card spot. 

In the American League, we have five teams fighting it out for 2 Wild Card spots that are all within 2.5 games of each other. The Rays, Astros, and White Sox have all pretty much wrapped up their respective divisions, and we are only in the 2nd week of September.

On top of that, the MVP races in both leagues are turning out to be ones for the ages for very different reasons. The NL MVP is wide open and has a handful of serious contenders. It will likely come down to the stretch. 

The AL MVP award is basically a two-man race between Shohei Ohtani and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. It was an exciting race early in the season with both players putting up ungodly numbers. While that has continued, one man has run away with the odds. 

Here is how Bovada has the top 5 players’ odds to win the AL MVP and our favorites to win. 

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AL MVP CandidateOdds
Shohei Ohtani-5000
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +1500
Marcus Semien+6600
Matt Olson   +6600
Rafael Devers    +6600

Shohei Ohtani (-5000)

What we are seeing in the 2021 MLB season out of Shohei Ohtani is nothing of historic and absolutely brilliant. He has completely run away with the AL MVP odds at -5000. We hope you got him during Spring Training or at the very beginning of this historic season. If you didn’t, we hope you have a ton of money to make the bet worthwhile. 

On the mound this season, Ohtani has been unhittable at times. He also started the All-Star Game on the mound and in the lead-off position in the batting order. Another historic day for Shohei. 

His ERA is 2.97 in 20 games started, and 112 innings pitched this season. He’s struck out 135 and only walked 41. Ohtani’s ERA+ is 150, and his FIP is 3.43; his bWAR for pitchers is 3.6.

Ohtani’s total bWAR on the season is 7.9, 1.3 more than any other player. 1.5 more than any other position player. That means he’s been worth 4.3 bWAR at the plate this season. 

He leads the league in home runs with 43; he’s 2nd in slugging percentage at .608, tied for 9th with 93 RBIs, 8th with 23 steals, and 2nd in XBH with 73. Quite the offensive season for a starting pitcher and likely the greatest single season in MLB history.  

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+1500)

The next few guys we are going to talk about are technically our “dark horse” candidates. Even with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s stats this year, he is kind of a dark horse with the 2nd best odds at +1500.

In pretty much any other season, Vladdy would be running away with the award or at least be at the top of the list, but he runs into Ohtani’s 2021 season. While no one has done what Shohei is doing, Guerrero is undoubtedly having a better all-around season at the plate. 

He leads MLB in runs scored with 106, hits with 164, batting average at .320, OPS at 1.016, and total bases with 310. His 5.7 bWAR is 4th in the league, but 2nd on his own team as Marcus Semien has accrued 6.4 and leads the league. 

There’s still a chance that Guerrero could get the Triple Crown this season. He leads the league in batting average, is only behind Ohtani by two home runs, and trails Salvador Perez by 5 RBIs.  

Dark Horse | Marcus Semien & Rafael Devers (+6600)

While there’s little to no chance that anyone other than Ohtani or Guerrero wins the AL MVP, we have to mention Marcus Semien & Rafael Devers, who are having fantastic seasons. Bovada has them both at +6600 odds to win the award. 

Semien leads the league with 6.4 bWAR and is slashing .272/.341/.549 with 38 home runs, and 90 RBIs. Not to mention what Semien brings defensively. According to Fangraphs, he has a 6 DRS. 

Devers picked up 2021 right where he left off a season ago. He already has over 100 RBIs, and his OPS is .892. He has 33 home runs and 34 doubles on the season. 

Honestly though, this award is Ohtani’s to lose, and we aren’t sure how he would go about losing one of the most incredible seasons in Major League history. 

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