How to Beat the Bookie When Betting 2021 Heisman Odds
The Heisman Trophy is a huge conversation surrounding the College Football season, and the beginning of the season is often the best time to bet on the trophy’s eventual winner. Let’s break down the best bets, be it favorites or long shots, that will make your accounts happy in December.
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My Heisman Rule
When I initially consider betting on the Heisman Trophy, I think of a rule that I started in 2018 and one that rings true today. The Oklahoma and Ohio State QBs will ALWAYS be great Heisman candidates. These are my two favorite bets at the top of the board for a bunch of reasons.
The main reason is that these are 2 head coaches who specialize in quarterback play, recruit QBs and WRs at the highest level, produce an offense that is QB stat-friendly with minimal bad plays, and they are very likely to win a lot of games while being the more talented team in every game they play.
Spencer Rattler is +500 on BetUS, and he is the favorite to win the Heisman this year. Rattler has the best arm talent in the 2022 QB class and was a former top-rated recruit, and I expect Rattler to have a great season. That being said, Rattler is someone that I am not heavily betting on because of the price and the circumstances surrounding him. Rattler is someone that I want exposure to in case this becomes a runaway with his experience vs. The field.
Oklahoma QBs have often been benefited from the poor defense in the Big 12 and the poor defense on their own team. This kept them in the game longer than other elite offenses and allowed them to rack up stats that other Heisman candidates couldn’t. This should not be the case this year as the Big 12 has shifted a little more towards defense than in the past, and the fact that Oklahoma expects to have a top 20 defense this season.
CJ Stroud is my favorite Heisman bet at +1000. While it was much nicer when it was +3400 back in February, I’d take CJ vs. any player not named Rattler this season. CJ is surrounded by the best receiver group in the country, a 3-headed backfield that should eventually end in the emergence of a former top 10 recruit, a top 3 TE, and what I’d expect to be the best offensive line in the country.
The Ohio State offensive talent will rival the best offenses in modern college football history, and CJ Stroud gets to pull all the strings. Stroud was a former top recruit with a very late rise, and there are multiple reports that would suggest that Stroud has only continued this ascent. Stroud also has 2 big games in the first two weeks of the season. Allowing him to control a narrative early if he has 2 big games. It also means you might want to get your bets down in a hurry.
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Emory Jones (+2500) is an elite talent on a top 15 program in an offense run by a good play-caller and an offense that likely needs a spark. Jones is definitely unproven, but the talent in his short stints on the field is obvious, and I think the narrative here can pop up. Similar to Stroud, Jones has a huge game against Alabama in week 4.
While the Tide will be large favorites, Alabama is more vulnerable this year than most, with a lot of turnover on offense in every facet. If Jones can pull off the upset, he tosses his name into the conversation very quickly.
If you want to get wild, Derek Stingley Jr. Is the best longshot on the board at a whopping +7000. Stingley was one of the best recruits in the country and flashed early and often as a true freshman at LSU when they won a national title. Last season at LSU was a disaster, but they have enough talent to be relevant again this season, and Stingley could have an interesting story.
Stingley may be the most talented player in the country, but he plays corner. There are talks about him seeing snaps at receiver, and this would be the narrative that would get Stingley on Heisman watch lists. Be the best corner in America on a top 10 team and be explosive when you get a snap on the other side of the ball. It would be a wild story, but I won’t bet against Stingley as a talent.
To learn more about this college football season and the best NCAAF picks around, head here.